280
FXUS64 KBMX 201844
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
144 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WE HAD A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION AS
SEVERAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVERPERFORMED AT TIMES. SEVERAL
STORMS PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT LED TO DOWNED TREES AND
POWERLINES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIVE OUR WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEAVING HEALTHY MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE SENDING A COLD
FRONT OUR WAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT "COOL" DOWN FOR US WITH
HIGH SETTLING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
COME DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE SOME
TIME THAT I REMEMBER LOOKING AT THE ECMWF EFI AND NOT SEEING A
SIGNAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS! WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL HAVE
TO GET THROUGH A FEW MORE DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BEFORE OUR
"RELIEF" ARRIVES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO PIN POINT FOR TAF INCLUSION ATTM.
WILL MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR FAIR
WEATHER VFR CUMULUS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO
VFR IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR FOG NEAR AUO TOWARD SUNRISE. I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG. WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%. LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 95 69 93 / 20 30 40 60
ANNISTON 70 93 70 92 / 20 30 30 50
BIRMINGHAM 73 95 72 93 / 20 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 98 72 96 / 20 30 20 40
CALERA 71 95 70 94 / 20 30 30 40
AUBURN 71 92 71 91 / 10 20 30 30
MONTGOMERY 72 94 72 94 / 10 20 30 20
TROY 70 93 70 94 / 10 10 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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