781
FXUS64 KBMX 202335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
OUR UPPER RIDGE OF LATE IS SITUATED FROM WRN TN SWWD TO MEXICO.
IT IS CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA
PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE BY TUESDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS. ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE COAST. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY, BUT
INSTEAD WILL BE FOCUSING ON ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
FAVORABLE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT TAKING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND BRINGING MUCH WELCOME MORE "NORMAL" TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR FOG
NEAR AUO TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPO GROUP IS MAINTAINED FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF FROM 09 TO 13Z. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE PROB30S FOR TSRA AT BHM, TCL, AND EET.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE LESS IN SEEING ACTIVITY AT MGM
AND AUO, BUT THAT WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.
12
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%. LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 95 69 93 / 30 30 40 60
ANNISTON 70 93 70 92 / 30 30 30 50
BIRMINGHAM 73 95 72 93 / 30 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 98 72 96 / 30 30 20 40
CALERA 71 95 70 94 / 20 30 30 40
AUBURN 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 30 30
MONTGOMERY 72 94 72 94 / 20 20 30 20
TROY 70 93 70 94 / 20 10 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page