941
FXUS64 KBMX 211116
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY, WITH ALABAMA REMAINING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
IN THE REGION. RECENT CAMS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA HAVING LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST AFTER MIDDAY, FROM 12 TO 2 PM, AND
CONTINUE UNTIL SLOWLY WANING BY 8 OR 9 PM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
OFFERS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A LOW-END SEVERE RISK, WITH
DAMAGING WIND AGAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS FINALLY
THE FIRST SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH
THE FIRST FRONT OF THE SEASON COMING THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR
ASTRONOMICAL FALL TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, AND THE END OF THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT MORE SEASONABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
12
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A DISTURBED
AIRMASS, WITH TCL, BHM, AND EET MAINTAINING PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA THROUGH 22/01Z. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR REDUCED VIS AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THAT IN
ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES,
WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. DRYING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH VERY MINIMAL TO NO RAIN CHANCES AND RH DIPPING
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 69 93 66 / 50 30 60 30
ANNISTON 93 70 92 68 / 50 40 60 20
BIRMINGHAM 94 72 93 69 / 50 30 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 96 71 96 68 / 50 30 40 10
CALERA 94 70 94 68 / 50 30 50 10
AUBURN 91 71 91 69 / 30 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 94 72 93 70 / 30 20 30 10
TROY 94 70 94 68 / 20 10 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../44/
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