205
FXUS64 KBMX 211903
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
203 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY, WITH ALABAMA REMAINING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
IN THE REGION. RECENT CAMS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA HAVING LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST AFTER MIDDAY, FROM 12 TO 2 PM, AND
CONTINUE UNTIL SLOWLY WANING BY 8 OR 9 PM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
OFFERS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A LOW-END SEVERE RISK, WITH
DAMAGING WIND AGAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS FINALLY
THE FIRST SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH
THE FIRST FRONT OF THE SEASON COMING THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR
ASTRONOMICAL FALL TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, AND THE END OF THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT MORE SEASONABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAVE PROB30S TO TEMPOS
AT ALL SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION AND LATER AS
WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AT EACH SITE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
LOOK FOR DRYING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH VERY MINIMAL TO
NO RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. MINRHS WILL DIP
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 92 67 89 / 50 60 50 30
ANNISTON 70 91 69 88 / 50 60 50 30
BIRMINGHAM 72 93 70 90 / 50 50 40 20
TUSCALOOSA 71 95 70 93 / 50 50 30 10
CALERA 70 94 70 92 / 50 50 40 20
AUBURN 71 91 70 89 / 20 50 40 20
MONTGOMERY 72 93 72 92 / 30 50 40 20
TROY 70 93 70 92 / 20 40 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...08
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