283
FXUS64 KBMX 220019
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
719 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IS BEING NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ATTM. WE HAVE A 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS,
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE OF LATE IS NOW CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE BY TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE
WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER,
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY, BUT INSTEAD WILL BE FOCUSING
ON ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A PATTERN SHIFT
TAKING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING MUCH WELCOME MORE
"NORMAL" TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES STARTING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH 03Z. ADJUSTED THE
TIMING AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IMPACTED AREAS. GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL, VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AFTER 08Z, WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES, BUT
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
LOOK FOR DRYING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH VERY MINIMAL TO
NO RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. MINRHS WILL DIP
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 92 67 89 / 50 60 50 30
ANNISTON 70 91 69 88 / 50 60 50 30
BIRMINGHAM 72 93 70 90 / 50 50 40 20
TUSCALOOSA 71 95 70 93 / 50 50 30 10
CALERA 70 94 70 92 / 50 50 40 20
AUBURN 71 91 70 89 / 20 50 40 20
MONTGOMERY 72 93 72 92 / 30 50 40 20
TROY 70 93 70 92 / 20 40 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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