676
FXUS64 KBMX 221706
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL AL TODAY, LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS GENERALLY THE IMPETUS
FOR THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A 20-30%
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
WARM/HUMID SURFACE, ANY OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
WE START TO SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR CENTRAL AL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL BE A WELCOME START TO THE FALL SEASON
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL)
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ALBEIT
NOT WITH AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. I HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR 21-24Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AS THEY MAY BE
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF GA. THIS FORCING MIGHT LEAD TO
LOWER CIGS AND INCREASED RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL
LATE IN THE PERIOD (GENERALLY AFTER 12Z). I HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CIGS IN FOR AUO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT I THINK MGM, EET, TCL,
AND BHM SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS AND STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIER
WEATHER WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MINRHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER WITH MINRHS APPROACHING
CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST AFTER
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 89 64 82 / 10 40 40 10
ANNISTON 68 88 66 80 / 10 40 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 91 68 83 / 10 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 70 94 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 69 92 68 84 / 10 20 20 10
AUBURN 70 88 67 80 / 10 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 71 92 70 85 / 10 10 30 10
TROY 70 92 68 85 / 10 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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