660
FXUS64 KBMX 230438
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. UNTIL THE
RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A WELCOME
TRANSITION TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
UPPER 70S LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 60S FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
DRY, SEASONABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MGM AND AUO
THROUGH THAT TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF GA LATER
OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MIGHT LEAD TO LOWER CIGS AND INCREASED
RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL LATE IN THE PERIOD
(GENERALLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY). MVFR CIGS REMAIN INCLUDED FOR
AUO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT MGM, EET, TCL, AND BHM ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
BHM, MGM, AND EET FROM 12Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 40% AND 60% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINRHS APPROACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 88 64 82 / 20 40 30 10
ANNISTON 68 86 65 80 / 20 40 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 90 68 83 / 20 20 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 70 93 69 88 / 20 10 10 20
CALERA 69 91 67 84 / 20 20 30 20
AUBURN 70 86 66 79 / 20 30 30 10
MONTGOMERY 71 91 69 84 / 20 20 30 20
TROY 70 91 67 84 / 20 20 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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