106
FXUS64 KBMX 230610
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. UNTIL THE
RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A WELCOME
TRANSITION TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
UPPER 70S LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 60S FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
DRY, SEASONABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FM GROUPS OUTSIDE OF AUO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN PAST 23/18Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AS WELL, SO I DID NOT
INTRODUCE ANY TSRA WITH THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 40% AND 60% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINRHS APPROACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 64 82 60 / 40 30 10 0
ANNISTON 86 65 80 59 / 40 40 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 68 83 62 / 20 30 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 93 69 88 64 / 10 10 20 0
CALERA 91 67 84 61 / 20 30 20 0
AUBURN 86 66 79 60 / 30 30 10 0
MONTGOMERY 91 69 84 63 / 20 30 20 0
TROY 91 67 84 61 / 20 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/
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