774
FXUS64 KBMX 240434
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL NOON.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS VERY PESSIMISTIC REGARDING RAIN CHANCES
JUST BEFORE DAWN AND THROUGH NOON; HOWEVER, MODEL GRAPHICS SHOW
ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO WARRANT A LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN MOVING
EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A
TRACE, BUT A FEW COULD SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF IT IS
ONLY A LIGHT DRIZZLE, IT WILL GIVE THE PERCEPTION OF LIGHT RAIN
FALLING. AFTER NOON, DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST, STARTING
ANOTHER DRY SPELL, THIS TIME ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
RECENT HEAT WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR
PLEASANT OUTDOOR CONDITIONS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 7 TO 10 KNOTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF -SHRA AT MGM LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS LIKELY AREAWIDE THURSDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, WE MADE THE CONDITIONS DOMINANT AFTER 08Z AND
LOWERED CEILINGS TO 1500 FEET IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL SITES FROM
11 TO 15Z BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 00Z, RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 17 TO 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
40% TO 60% THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING MINRH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30-40% RANGE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 80 59 81 / 20 20 0 0
ANNISTON 65 78 58 80 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 67 81 61 83 / 20 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 85 63 86 / 10 20 0 0
CALERA 67 82 60 84 / 20 20 0 0
AUBURN 66 78 59 79 / 40 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 82 62 82 / 20 10 0 0
TROY 67 82 60 83 / 40 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page