962
FXUS64 KBMX 241112
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL NOON.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS VERY PESSIMISTIC REGARDING RAIN CHANCES
JUST BEFORE DAWN AND THROUGH NOON; HOWEVER, MODEL GRAPHICS SHOW
ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO WARRANT A LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN MOVING
EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A
TRACE, BUT A FEW COULD SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF IT IS
ONLY A LIGHT DRIZZLE, IT WILL GIVE THE PERCEPTION OF LIGHT RAIN
FALLING. AFTER NOON, DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST, STARTING
ANOTHER DRY SPELL, THIS TIME ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
RECENT HEAT WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR
PLEASANT OUTDOOR CONDITIONS.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIX OUT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING, WITH ALL TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR
CATEGORY BY 24/18Z. THIS IS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
40% TO 60% THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING MINRH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30-40% RANGE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 80 59 81 55 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 78 58 80 54 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 81 61 83 59 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 85 63 86 61 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 82 60 84 58 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 78 59 79 57 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 82 62 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 82 60 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/
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