549
FXUS64 KBMX 250009
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
709 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TODAY, THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A DEVELOPING HIGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. FLOW WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH, WITH DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE. THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THIS DRY AIR, SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER LINGERING. ANY DRIZZLE OVER THE STATE SHOULD ALSO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A SOLID
10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. AS THE NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING TO ADVECT COOL AND
DRY AIR, THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWEST SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL, AND THE HEAT INDICES
WILL BE AT THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. BY MONDAY, MODELS START TO
DIVERGE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWER TREND TO THE MODELS SO FAR WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN. WITH MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THIS
FEATURE, WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE SOMETIME AROUND
MID WEEK, IF NOT SLIGHTLY LATER.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AND REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TO SET UP, WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTING BACK INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN'T BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE, BUT HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S IS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING
UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT AUO
AND MGM. THEY WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT AUO, BUT TEMPORARY AT
MGM. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ON
FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20 TO 40 %) OF PATCHY GROUND FOG AT ALL SITES, WITH THE LOWEST
CHANCE AT BHM. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO WORDING FOR THESE SITES FROM
10 TO 13Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS DRY AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40% TO 60%
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
MINRH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30-40% RANGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 58 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 63 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 79 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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