197
FXUS64 KBMX 251103
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR, THOUGH STUBBORN CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST SOUTH OF
I-85 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WATERWAYS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING
COOL, DRY AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PUSHING LOW TEMPERATURES TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MID 50S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND COOL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY, EXHIBITING A SLOWER TREND WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
STATE AROUND MID- WEEK OR SLIGHTLY LATER.
SOUTHERLY BEGINS TO INCREASE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND SLOW
MOISTURE RECOVERY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE HAVE SEE
THE END OF THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO USHER IN OCTOBER.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE FLOW, MVFR CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING AUO-EET-
MGM AS OF 11Z WITH PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL BUT VFR CLOUDS AT BHM-TCL.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONCLUDE TOWARD 15Z, WITH VARIED VFR CLOUDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOLLOWING AN
EASTERLY HEADING THIS MORNING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z WITH MAX SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS,
EASING AT SUNDOWN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS
KEEPING OVERALL CONCERNS MINIMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60% THROUGH FRIDAY, DROPPING TO
30 TO 40% OVER THE WEEKEND, AND REACHING THE UPPER 20 TO 30%
RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 76 55 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 79 59 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 79 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 76 58 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 79 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 80 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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