816
FXUS64 KBMX 120328
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1028 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
COOLER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND FOR CENTRAL AL
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON'T EXPECT ANY HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, MAKING FOR MILD FALL
MORNINGS BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THE AFTERNOONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE A TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, THE FORECAST WILL KEEP
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
END UP OCCURRING. OVERALL, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A HUGE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ASIDE FROM THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY 20-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY DROPPING AT OR BELOW 5 MILES
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. I'D CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HAVING TEMPO GROUPS FOR 5SM BETWEEN 10-14Z
FOR OUR TYPICAL FOGGY LOCATIONS FOR EET AND MGM. A NOTABLE CHANGE
IS DROPPING TCL TO IFR VIS BETWEEN 10-14Z AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-50% OF DENSER FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL. WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DENSE VALLEY OR RIVER FOG AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
NOTE: WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30-40% RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD,
WE'RE EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KBHM: 91/1963
KEET: 86/2014
KANB: 88/1963
KTCL: 92/1963
KMGM: 91/2017
OCTOBER 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
OCTOBER 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
OCTOBER 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
OCTOBER 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 56 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 59 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 58 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 58 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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