074
FXUS64 KBMX 121616
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
COOLER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND FOR CENTRAL AL
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON'T EXPECT ANY HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, MAKING FOR MILD FALL
MORNINGS BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THE AFTERNOONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE A TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, THE FORECAST WILL KEEP
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
END UP OCCURRING. OVERALL, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A HUGE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ASIDE FROM THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR A
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND FROM 4-8 KTS IS FORECAST TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN CONTINUED
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
STATE AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT AUO AND EET DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30-40% RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD,
WE'RE EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KBHM: 91/1963
KEET: 86/2014
KANB: 88/1963
KTCL: 92/1963
KMGM: 91/2017
OCTOBER 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
OCTOBER 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
OCTOBER 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
OCTOBER 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 86 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 85 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 87 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 87 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 88 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 86 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...05
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