193
FXUS64 KBMX 121711
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEK, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SETTING NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DRY FASHION BY
SATURDAY AND WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST TO BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TOWARD THE SURFACE, ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAIN ITS ELONGATED
STATE AS IT BECOMES POSITIONED FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 5-10
MPH DURING THE DAY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE READINGS MAY RIVAL THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES PROVIDED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST ACROSS THE WEST
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOW 60S WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CENTERED FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES BEFORE SHEARING OUT ON THURSDAY OVER
COLORADO BEFORE A MORE POTENT THROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY
WHILE SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE PRESENTLY DRY
AIRMASS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LOCALLY AS
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE MID 40S ALL BUT FAR SOUTH WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW 50S ON SUNDAY MORNING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
05
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR A
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND FROM 4-8 KTS IS FORECAST TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN CONTINUED
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE STATE AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT AUO AND EET DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 22 WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MON OCT. 12:
KBHM: 91/1963
KEET: 86/2014
KANB: 88/1963
KTCL: 92/1963
KMGM: 91/2017
TUE OCT. 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
WED OCT. 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
THU OCT. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
FRI OCT. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 86 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 85 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 87 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 87 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 88 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 86 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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