471
FXUS64 KBMX 130356
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
COOLER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. WITH THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EACH MORNING, BUT THOSE COOL MORNINGS WILL
WARM UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS APPROACHING
OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS, BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS.WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO 4-6KTS DURING THE DAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG AT TCL AND MGM FOR A FEW
HOUR BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY IS
MUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
NOTE: WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30-40% RANGE. A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW
30% FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS IF EFFICIENT
MIXING CAN OCCUR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
TUE OCT. 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
WED OCT. 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
THU OCT. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
FRI OCT. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 59 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 62 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 59 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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