561
FXUS64 KBMX 150538
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- RECORD HIGHS: TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK,
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- FALL WEATHER: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THIS EVENING WE HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE, TO AR, AND NEWD TO MD. THE W PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GET PUSHED NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES NEWD. BY FRIDAY MORNING THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. DURING FRIDAY
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GET ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
FLOW TO MOVE THROUGH C AL AND FINALLY ALLOW FALL TO MAKE ITS
ARRIVAL IN THE AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
HELP OF FRONTAL FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO TS OR HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THAT WE STILL HAVE THU WHERE WE COULD SEE A FEW
MAX TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION), AND FRI WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES
NRLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT FRI AFTERNOON, THAT NIGHT AND ON INTO
SATURDAY WITH TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
COOL READINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY ON FRI NIGHT AND FOR
ALL SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S OVER THE
WEEKEND. OUR AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR NEXT WEEK AS OUR
FLOW BECOMES MORE ERLY, BUT OVERALL STILL DRY.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WILL CONTINUE THE VFR (CLEAR AND CALM) FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE FIELD AT TIMES AT TCL
OR MGM (LIKE THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS), BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS, MINIMAL RAINFALL,
AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THU OCT. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
FRI OCT. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 60 84 47 / 0 0 20 10
ANNISTON 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 89 64 84 48 / 0 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 92 62 85 49 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10
AUBURN 88 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10
MONTGOMERY 89 63 86 52 / 0 0 20 10
TROY 88 62 85 51 / 0 0 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../61/
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