415
FXUS64 KBMX 160533
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FALL WEATHER: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THIS EVENING WE HAVE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SWWD TO AR AND SWINGING BACK INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD
GET ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE PUSH FROM THE UPPER FLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH C AL AND FINALLY ALLOW FALL TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE HELP
OF FRONTAL FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO TS OR HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL STILL SEE ENOUGH
WARMING FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE
80S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL
BE LESS TIME TO HEAT UP BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES WHERE IT MAY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 70S. BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES NRLY WINDS SHOULD
BE FELT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THAT NIGHT AND ON INTO SATURDAY WITH
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL FALL
READINGS ARE ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND FOR ALL SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S OVER THE WEEKEND. OUR AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR
NEXT WEEK AS OUR FLOW BECOMES MORE ERLY, BUT OVERALL STILL DRY
WITH EASTERN CONUS SURFACE RIDGING.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER, ALAS SOME
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE TODAY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED AND GUSTINESS, WITH A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. WHILE THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO
PRECLUDE MENTIONING ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN, IT
IS VERY UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
I DID INCLUDE AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4000 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT, BUT THERE'S NOTHING IN THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SUGGEST
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, AND MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 47 65 41 / 20 10 0 0
ANNISTON 85 47 65 43 / 20 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 84 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 86 49 68 44 / 20 10 0 0
CALERA 85 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0
AUBURN 84 50 67 48 / 20 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 87 51 69 47 / 20 20 0 0
TROY 86 49 68 47 / 20 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../61/
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