004
FXUS64 KBMX 161130
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FALL WEATHER: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THIS EVENING WE HAVE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SWWD TO AR AND SWINGING BACK INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD
GET ENOUGH OF A FAVORABLE PUSH FROM THE UPPER FLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH C AL AND FINALLY ALLOW FALL TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE HELP
OF FRONTAL FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO TS OR HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL STILL SEE ENOUGH
WARMING FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE
80S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL
BE LESS TIME TO HEAT UP BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES WHERE IT MAY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 70S. BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES NRLY WINDS SHOULD
BE FELT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THAT NIGHT AND ON INTO SATURDAY WITH
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL FALL
READINGS ARE ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND FOR ALL SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S OVER THE WEEKEND. OUR AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR
NEXT WEEK AS OUR FLOW BECOMES MORE ERLY, BUT OVERALL STILL DRY
WITH EASTERN CONUS SURFACE RIDGING.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUDINESS
FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA LATER TODAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM ITS PASSAGE, FROM AN AVIATION STANDPOINT, WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUST FACTOR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CEILINGS WITHIN THE CLOUD BAND. WE CURRENTLY
ARE KEEP CONDITIONS VFR, WITH CEILINGS NO LOWER THAN 4000 FT.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOWER CEILINGS CURRENTLY BACK UPSTREAM, AND IF
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DOESN'T MIX IN ENOUGH THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS AS WELL.
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ARE PRETTY SPOTTY, AND WE DON'T
FORESEE ANY IMPACTS FROM A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER THAT MAY HAPPEN TO
HIT A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL STAY UP (AND GUSTY) WELL AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO GUSTY
WINDS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 47 65 41 / 20 10 0 0
ANNISTON 85 47 65 43 / 20 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 84 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 86 49 68 44 / 20 10 0 0
CALERA 85 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0
AUBURN 84 50 67 48 / 20 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 87 51 69 47 / 20 20 0 0
TROY 86 49 68 47 / 20 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../61/
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