878
FXUS64 KBMX 161655
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FALL WEATHER: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS ARE ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NW IN NW PORTIONS OF AL HERE
AROUND NOON. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN IMPACT
IS GOING TO BE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH LOWS SATURDAY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50, THEN DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID
40S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
QUITE A BIT, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR OVERALL MILD
FALL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH THAT'S MOVING THROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE'LL GRADUALLY SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 THROUGH FRIDAY.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z.
AFTER THAT, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z (LIKELY LONGER AND BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD). WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SO I DON'T HAVE THAT MENTIONED IN ANY OF THE TAFS, BUT
WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LOWER VFR TO HIGHER MVFR CLOUDS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. I'VE KEPT VFR IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WE'LL
NEED TO MONITOR THE CIGS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH 20FT
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RHS DROP TO
THE LOW 30% RANGE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL, WITH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DROPPING JUST BELOW 40%. THIS KEEPS US
OUT OF CRITICAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
NOTABLY DRY AND WINDY ON SATURDAY, SO OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 47 66 41 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 85 47 65 42 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 84 48 65 44 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 86 49 68 45 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 85 48 65 44 / 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 84 50 67 47 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 87 50 69 47 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 86 48 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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