943
FXUS64 KBMX 171055
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FALL WEATHER: COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GEORGIA
COAST, THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF. A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS WITH A 1036-37MB CENTER STRETCHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND NORTHEAST TOWARD
EASTERN NEBRASKA. BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES NRLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY WITH TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
CENTER SHIFTS TO OVER INDIANA/OHIO AND GRADIENTS RELAX ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. COOL FALL READINGS ARE ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MOST THIS WEEK. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF
THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCALES AND VALLEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OVERALL
EASTERN CONUS RIDGING CONTINUES THIS WEEK, IT DOES WEAKEN A
LITTLE. AS SUCH, OUR AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY. LOOK FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY TO BE SEASONAL IN THE 70S,
WITH 80S CREEPING BACK FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, WE
WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
MUCH CLOUD COVER MUCH LESS RAIN.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DECOUPLING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20FT
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RHS DROP TO
THE MIDDLE 30% RANGE IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DROPPING JUST BELOW 40%. THIS
KEEPS US OUT OF CRITICAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOTABLY DRY AND WINDY ON SATURDAY, SO OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 41 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 66 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 45 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 45 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 66 45 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 67 48 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 47 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 69 46 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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