527
FXUS64 KBMX 172338
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FALL WEATHER: COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STIFF NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND REMAINS IN STORE
FOR US. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY, REMAINING FROM
THE N/NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY REBOUND, AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY STARTS TO BUILD OFF TO OUR WEST. THANKFULLY,
THIS CLIMB WILL BE GRADUAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER-70S AND LOW-80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE REGION WILL TRANSITION INTO NW FLOW ALOFT, AS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST, AND A DEEP TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR EAST. WHILE THIS NW FLOW WON'T AFFECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES, IT WILL KEEP DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA, WITH
DECOUPLED SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER-40S THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS WELL, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE OVERHEAD AIRMASS.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CONUS CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. NRLY WINDS WILL TAPER
DOWN TONIGHT SOME AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
TURN TO NE-ENE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF HAS BEGUN
AS OF 10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH 20FT WINDS IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THOROUGH MIXING, WITH MINRH VALUES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO NEAR 30% INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THESE LOW MINRH VALUES AND DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MEDIUM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 43 68 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 45 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 48 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 46 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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