352
FXUS64 KBMX 180503
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FALL WEATHER: COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THIS EVENING A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH. A
1035 MB CENTER IS NOW OVER OHIO. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RELAX AS RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
ARE RESPONDING TO THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AND BEGINNING TO
TAPER DOWN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD START TO BECOME NE TO E ON SUNDAY
AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE. COOL FALL READINGS ARE ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. WE COULD EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED LOW OR
TWO IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCALES AND
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 60S FOR SUNDAY WITH A FEW LOWER 70S. WHILE OVERALL EASTERN
CONUS RIDGING CONTINUES THIS WEEK, IT DOES WEAKEN A LITTLE. AS
SUCH, OUR AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY TO BE SEASONAL IN THE 70S,
WITH LOWER 80S CREEPING BACK FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL REMAIN RAINFREE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
CLOUD COVER, MUCH LESS RAIN.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CONUS CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. NRLY WINDS WILL TAPER
DOWN TONIGHT SOME AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
TURN TO NE-ENE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF HAS BEGUN
AS OF 10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG SUNDAY, WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTS 12 TO 17 MPH. AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR THOROUGH MIXING, WITH MINRH VALUES GENERALLY DROPPING TO
NEAR 30% INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE LOW MINRH
VALUES AND DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MEDIUM
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 43 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 45 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 48 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 46 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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