126
FXUS64 KBRO 150513 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1113 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
MIDLEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HEADED INTO SUNDAY AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL SLOWLY
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, MOISTURE POOLING AT THE SURFACE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW HAVE ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE, AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
PWAT OF 1.03 INCHES BUT AT THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING IT WAS 1.67
INCHES, WELL ABOVE THE THE PERCENTILE. WITH ALL OF THE EXCESS
MOISTURE, WE HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN
TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY
AREAS DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN UNDER 10%.
OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND WITH A LOWER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER HANGS ON A
BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ONCE, AGAIN.
FINALLY, HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT AT AREA BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A COLD
FRONT MID WEEK BRINGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE,
TYPICAL HIGHS FOR OUR CWA ARE AROUND 69-74 WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
AROUND 47-54. THIS IS DUE TO AN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO OVERSPREAD SOUTH TEXAS WHILE KEEPING THE COLD CANADIAN AIR LOCKED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A TIME WINDOW FOR COLDER (MORE
SEASONABLE) AIR TO COME SOUTH INTO THE RGV DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
COMES SOUTH FROM THE ROCKIES INTO TEXAS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT EAST. THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, WITH
THE GEM STRENGTHENING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DRIVING A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO MEXICO WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND GFS
ADVERTISE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. UNSURPRISINGLY, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS
DEPICTING 15-25 DEGREES SPREAD BETWEEN THE THE AND THE PERCENTILE
OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, HAVE GENERALLY GONE
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE, YIELDING HIGHS MON-WED IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S AND THU-SAT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS, GENERALLY LOOKING AT 60S FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT,
FALLING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS, IT WOULD DEPEND ON THE POTENCY OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE GEM WERE TO VERIFY, THEN WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MID WEEK ALONG WITH GUSTY SHOWERS OR
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH FINE-TUNING THE COVERAGE OF THE
STREAMER SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. FINALLY, THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
AS HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OVERNIGHT, KHRL AND KMFE ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS AS PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT KMFE AS FOG
THICKENS. MEANWHILE, KBRO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MVFR DUE TO A
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITY RISING
AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO SCATTERED VFR WITH A MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON
THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
LOOK TO LINGER ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON THE POTENCY OF THE COLD
FRONT, GALE FORCE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THURSDAY BUT
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY (10 PERCENT) SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 80 69 81 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 65 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 76 71 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-MCGINNIS
LONG TERM....88-CHAI
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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