568
FXUS64 KBRO 151703 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1103 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING DUE
TO THE FORMATION OF FOG, MAINLY WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, A SURVEY OF TXDOT CAMERAS SHOW THAT THE FOG IS
NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE AT THIS TIME. STILL, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OR CALM AND THE VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO
DEGRADE.
OTHERWISE, A NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR, IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, AND LESSENING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WILL GENERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY PLEASANT
WITH ONLY ONE DISRUPTION TO WORRY ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, THAT DISRUPTION BEING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE
LARGEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES ARE ISOLATED AT BEST AROUND 30 PERCENT,
THUS THERE MANY PLACES COULD NOT GET ANY RAIN THAT DAY.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A LARGE SWING THAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT, THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 80S AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER, AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY, BUT
THEN START TO WARM BACK UP SO THAT BY SATURDAY, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
MID AND UPPER 40S TO LOW AND MID 50S. JUST LIKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WARM UP SO THAT
THEY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THAT
WARMING TREND WILL BE A BIT SLOWER FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, AS THE
COLDEST NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS OCCURS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
OBS REFLECT PLENTIFUL LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KMFE. WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST
PART, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KBRO REFLECTS A
NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE UP TO A STRONG INVERSION
AT 7.5 KFT. WHILE SKIES WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST THROUGH
MONDAY, MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO SUPPORT MVFR TO SOMETIMES
VFR CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 12:50 CST/06:50 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER INLAND MEXICO TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BREEZY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 70 81 67 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 81 65 83 63 / 10 0 0 10
MCALLEN 83 68 85 66 / 10 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 67 85 65 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 70 76 70 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 67 79 65 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...54-BHM
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