635
FXUS64 KBRO 160425 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1025 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GULF TO
PROVIDE A FRAMEWORK FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A WEAK UPSTREAM
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND WON'T BE A
PLAYER IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE PULLER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST MAY RESULT IN A FEW NEARBY SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
ALONG THE WAY. RIP CURRENT RISK IS TRENDING DOWN, BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE EASING BACK TO MODERATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON AN AREAWIDE FOG SIGNAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT, CONVERGING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE OFF TO VERY LIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FOG SIGNAL WAS LOW (10%) FOR TONIGHT, BUT JUMPED
TO MODERATE (30-40%) FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY (AREAWIDE) TO AREAS (RANCHLANDS) OF FOG FROM
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO DAWN TUESDAY. FINALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED COME THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A VERY SMALL (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF RAIN. OTHER THAN THIS
ELEVATED CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY IN THE VALLEY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS GETTING UP TO THE LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT
THE VALLEY. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. THE AIR WILL ALSO FEEL A LOT MORE HUMID DUE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, BRINGING IN MOISTER AIR FROM THE GULF. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE
EASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND, BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE 3 REGIONAL AIRPORTS AS OF 04Z. BANDS AND PATCHES
OF MVFR CLOUDS DECKS ARE FORMING AND STREAMING NORTHWEST AND ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY PASS OVER ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MONDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF
35-40KFT. SOUTHEAST WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
DENSE FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH (OFFSHORE ZONES)
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL. STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST GULF DURING THE SHORT TERM SUPPORTING ONSHORE FLOW. A
FEW MARINE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
COULD ELEVATE WINDS TO LEVELS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED. OTHER THAN THIS, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL EXPECTED
TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4-5
FEET BEFORE AND DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL DECREASE BACK
TO 3-4 FEET BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FEET EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 66 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 69 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 84 64 83 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 76 70 76 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 80 64 79 / 0 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...59-GB
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