544
FXUS64 KBRO 161750 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1150 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TOTAL FORECAST WILL BE
FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE, NAM MOS ESPECIALLY, SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG IS WELL
REPRESENTED IN THE NAM MOS, AND AS A RESULT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE INLAND BRO CWFA IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATED MODEL
GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND DEFER THE DECISION OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY 24 HOURS FROM NOW TO A SUCCESSIVE SHIFT.
OTHERWISE, A NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR, IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED AND OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, AND LESSENING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WILL GENERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE BIGGEST TALKING POINT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CURRENT MODEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT COULD BE WEAKER THAN WAS PROJECTED
YESTERDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER WITH THIS SET OF MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO IS LESS AS WELL. BEFORE THE LOW
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE A MIXTURE OF MID AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW AND MID 50S. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN, THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW PLACES
IN THE LOW 60S BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, THEY ARE NOW MOSTLY IN THE 70S AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE FRONT MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE WILL BE STILL
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
STABLE AIR WILL HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AFTER THE FRONT.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AROUND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY....THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TO AVIATION OPS FOR
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE IS:
* THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE FOG) DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO BURN THROUGH THE
CLOUDS, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE, AND WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST INCREASE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES, PARTICULARLY FROM THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (RAP MODEL), THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE, AND DESI SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPING LOOKS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO KMFE/KHRL. HAVE INDICATIONS OF THIS
POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TAFS DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z AND
PERSISTING TO ABOUT 14-15Z. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES
PLACE, SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED NARROW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THAT SAID, FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD REACH LIFR-VLIFR
TONIGHT.
ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING OUT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO IMPROVING FLYING
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING TO 5-10 KTS. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 12:50 CST/06:50 UTC.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER INLAND MEXICO TO PRODUCE A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY.
BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST, AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR
OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. AFTERWARDS, AND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND CORRESPONDING LOWER SEAS,
WITH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LESS OF A CONCERN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, THUS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION COULD BE
NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS, THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 67 81 66 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 85 66 83 67 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 85 64 83 64 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 76 70 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 65 79 65 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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