507
FXUS64 KBRO 170010 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
610 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
* FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WITH NO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AROUND, QUIESCENT WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S COUPLED
WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME OF THE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD BE DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MULTIPLE FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES,
INCLUDING FROM THE BUFKIT (RAP MODEL), NAM MOS GUIDANCE, NBM, AND
DESI, CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (30-70%) FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP
BELOW 1 MILE LATER TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE LIES OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO THE THE MID VALLEY. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AMID A SEMI-ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW PATTERN AND HIGHER
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WARMER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL FEATURE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER. FORTUNATELY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE STATE OF TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
CLOSER TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY.
STILL, POPS REMAIN LOW (20% OR LESS) AND MAINLY OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID DECEMBER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S BY NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TO TREND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
THAT WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH
NIGHT REGION WIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR
ENHANCED COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE AIRFIELDS TONIGHT, WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
MORE LIKELY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE MORNING,
THE FOG MAY LIFT TO A BRIEF LOW STRATUS DECK BEFORE MIXING OUT
LATER IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 67 81 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 64 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 67 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 83 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 75 70 76 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 79 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...60-BE
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