990
FXUS64 KBRO 171732
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS,
TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO
ADD IN LOW POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR THE LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, A SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 6K
FEET HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAS PREVENTED
THE FORMATION OF THE DENSE FOG, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG IS BEING
OBSERVED WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
TOTAL FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUAL APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT LATE
WEDNESDAY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EASES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
FINALLY, MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE SOME OF THE
IMPACTS FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AT THE VERY START OF THE PERIOD, BUT THOSE CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH FROM THERE. AFTERWARDS, MORE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND BY
FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING EVEN MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL HINDER RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SO EXPECT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THE LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF THE 50S TO LOW 60S, THANKS TO THE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MEANWHILE, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD START OFF WITH A MIXTURE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES INCREASE
FURTHER TO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. FINALLY, ON MONDAY, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SOME
PLACES EVEN GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER,
AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TOWARD THE BRO, MFE, AND HRL AIRPORTS OVER
THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY EXPECTING SHRA ACTIVITY, BUT AN ISOLATED
TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY THIS EVENING.
OUR MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, BUT VISIBILITY MAY FALL TO 1
MILE OR LESS AT HRL AND MFE CLOSER TO 09-10Z TONIGHT. THIS
POTENTIAL IS LOWER AT BRO, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 4SM. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 14-15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT BRO AND
HRL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 1:50 CST/07:50 UTC. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD, AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AND LOWER, RESPECTIVELY, ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NEITHER SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
LEAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS BEHIND WITH WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 67 80 58 / 30 0 20 20
HARLINGEN 82 64 81 54 / 30 0 20 20
MCALLEN 85 68 84 57 / 20 0 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 83 65 81 56 / 10 0 30 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 75 62 / 20 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 66 78 56 / 20 0 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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