046
FXUS64 KBRO 180913
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
313 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING FOG
REMAIN LIKELY.
-LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
-LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW PLACES IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS IN THE UPPER 40S.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW THAT SOME FOG HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION. AS OF THIS TIME, MOST OF
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LIGHT FOG HAS STARTED TO APPEAR IN THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF AROUND 30 PERCENT OF
FOG LESS THAN HALF OF A MILE FOR MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CAN EVEN PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT WILL PUT AN
END TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
MOSTLY IN THE 80S TODAY. HOWEVER, THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD EVEN GET INTO
THE UPPER 40S. THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL, AS
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH
A FEW PLACES IN THE UPPER 60S.
FINALLY, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TRANQUIL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TOTAL FORECAST.
IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE BRO CWFA WILL INITIALLY
BE ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUALLY, AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST,
FRESH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME CENTERED
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, PLACING THE BRO CWFA IN A MORE
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT OF THIS VARIABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BE DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, GENERALLY INCREASING DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICPATED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS
AND BECOMES MORE INTENSE. NEAR NORMAL VALUES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WINDS BECOME
BREEZY, MAINLY IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
FINALLY, AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, MODERATE TO HIGH, IS
POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT ALL AERODROMES. FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.
BRO WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. HRL AND MFE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. HRL WILL FALL TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDMORNING, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE. MFE WILL FALL TO LIFR NEAR DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING
BACK TO MVFR MID MORNING AND FINALLY VFR BY MIDDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERWARDS, THE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER,
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES,
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TO EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 57 71 57 / 20 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 82 53 71 53 / 20 20 0 0
MCALLEN 84 56 72 57 / 30 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 82 53 71 53 / 30 40 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 62 68 63 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 56 69 57 / 20 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KATZ-64
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...TOMASELLI-66
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