808
FXUS64 KBRO 182026
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MEAGER INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 3 OR 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
INCREASES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (AROUND 30-40%) ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES (20% OR
LESS) EAST OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUITE
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE AS WELL, WHICH INDICATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
MID/UPPER RGV AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AND DESPITE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS, AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS, FOR MID
DECEMBER. AFTER A WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
80S, THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER, A FEW AREAS OVER
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 40S IF RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESSES ARE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
HIGH WILL SLIP EASTWARD AND FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL INTO
MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MOVES
SOUTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, TURNING
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US DOMINATES THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
WITH RETURN FLOW. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR, AND SOUTH OF, THE US-
MEXICO BORDER AND AN OVERRIDING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY 70S AND 80S THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS, AND
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TAF TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AT MFE. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
WITH MVFR CEILINGS HIGHLY LIKELY AT BRO AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT MFE
AND HRL. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS, AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AS THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD,
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS (2-4
FT), RESULTING FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY.
A FEW ROUNDS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AS
WELL AS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOP.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 58 69 57 73 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 54 70 55 71 / 20 0 0 10
MCALLEN 57 71 57 72 / 40 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 56 70 54 69 / 40 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 66 64 71 / 10 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 58 67 58 72 / 10 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ135-155-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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