218
FXUS64 KBRO 191809
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1209 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD,
WHILE REMAINING LIGHT. THANKS TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR
AND THE STABILITY BROUGHT BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WHERE SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TODAY AND ANOTHER PERIOD IS LIKELY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTS DO SHOW THAT THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHS TODAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE SOME PARTS OF THE COAST
COULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S. AS FOR TONIGHT, LIKE MENTIONED BEFORE,
THE CLEAR SKIES WOULD HELP WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO THAT THE
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE 50S. THEN, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, DEPENDING UPON THE CLOUD COVERAGE, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS MIGHT ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FINALLY, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY,
BUT SHOULD BECOME A LOW RISK BY TOMORROW AS THE WAVE HEIGHTS
DECREASE ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
- UNCERTAIN OF RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY DUE TO SEVERAL FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES.
A POTENTIAL VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO CROSS THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS. MODELS NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING, INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL OF
THESE SHORTWAVE MAKING FOR A VERY LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST FROM THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. ALTHOUGH, CURRENT TRENDS FROM THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOW A WARM AND DRY CHRISTMAS GFS AND
ECMWF ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH ABOVE NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. FOR THE
LAST SHOPPING WEEKEND, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH SUNDAY SEEING AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION (INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF) INCREASES
IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE
NBM FORECAST TRENDS WARM AND RAINFREE, HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A DEVELOPING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING INTO TEXAS
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH INCREASE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW COUPLED WITH AND INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WOULD LEAN TOWARDS SOME INCREASE CHANCE OF
RAIN. GFS/ECMWF SHOW 20-50 PERCENT WEST TO EAST ALONG THE RGV AND
20-30% NORTH AND WEST. WITH THIS SAID, FUTURE FORECAST MAY BE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH POPS AS THE HOLIDAY APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
LOW CEILINGS HAVE GRADUALLY MIXED WITH WNW DRY ALOFT AIR
ENTRAINING DOWN FROM NOTABLE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT 1 KM AGL.
BKN TO OVC SKIES STILL HOLDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF RIO GRANDE AND
WILL BE SLOWER THIN AND LIFT. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE RIO GRANDE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, TERMINALS THAT
ARE FLUCUATING MVFR / VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIRUNAL HEATING. MOISTURE ALOFT
RETURNS OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF AND WILL THICKEN / LOWER CEILINGS,
BORDERING MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS OF THE
20TH.
30 / LCH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY....WITH THE COLD FRONT PAST THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST, THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE LEADING TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS.
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINTAINING A MODERATE NORTHEAST
WIND AND MODEST SEA STATE. THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINERS MAY BRIEFLY SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS. SHOWERS HOWEVER MAY BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 60 73 58 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 71 55 73 54 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 73 58 72 57 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 55 69 55 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 65 71 65 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 59 72 58 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM....59
AVIATION...64
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