901
FXUS64 KBRO 192312 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
512 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
UNDER RIDGING AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH PERSISTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
OVERNIGHT, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FOG, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, PARTICULARLY FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES,
THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE SINKING AIR BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA WILL INITIATE A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, REACHING THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) MID FRIDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 15-20 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WARMER AIR IS LIFTED BY A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR.
FOLLOWING, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AND LOWERS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. DECREASED
HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY AND
MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S, THOUGH A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE, AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MID 60S AT SPI.
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, BUT SHOULD
TREND TOWARD A LOW RISK BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
TO MODERATE RISK INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGE
- EXTREME WINTER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. I USED THE LATEST
NBM AS IS. WHILE THERE WAS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF TIMING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM, EACH MODEL'S
TEMPERATURE OUTPUT WAS GENERALLY WITHIN A STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THE OTHER MODEL'S GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
BACK DOOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SET UP WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
THEN, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, DRAGGING A WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LATITUDINAL FRONT
SLICING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. NEXT, A THIRD TROUGH WILL SPILL
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A FOURTH TROUGH FINALLY MOVING INTO EAST
TEXAS BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH THAT ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THESE RAPIDLY MOVING TROUGHS DO NOT HAVE THE SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR TO POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV, FOR NOW. THE BEST (20 TO 30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN, MAINLY EAST, WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH UNSETTLED
SURFACE INFLOW BELOW THE FIRST MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THROUGH THE LONG
TERM, TEMPS ARE CHECKING IN ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR HRL AFTER 2 AM TO AROUND
DAYBREAK AND AT MFE AROUND DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. BRO AND MFE
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR LATE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO ALL AERODROMES BY MIDDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT, IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT
(2-3 FT) SEAS ARE CONTINUE. A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (3-4 FT) SEAS AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SCEC CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE
OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS INTO THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WE'LL START OUT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF RETREATS SLOWLY EAST, AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 61 73 56 73 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 56 72 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 59 74 54 73 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 56 70 52 70 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 72 65 70 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 72 56 71 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...68
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