499
FXUS64 KBRO 201727 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MONITORING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER,
HARLINGEN AIRPORT BRIEFLY (MIDNIGHT-1 AM) DROPPED DOWN TO 1/4-1/2
MILE. SINCE THAN THEY HAVE RISEN TO 5 MILES WHILE NO OTHER LOCATION
ACROSS THE RGV HAS OBSERVED FOG AS OF 3 AM. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS. CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION IS DIMINISHING AND
WOULD ONLY EXPECT PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE LONE STAR STATE TODAY. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN
WAKE OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVERSPREADING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION WITH A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING A LOW CHANCE (10-
20%) OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WHERE LIMITED
MOISTURE RESIDES. BESIDES THE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR
AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF
FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S NORTH TO SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. SATURDAY'S WEATHER WILL
FEATURE MODEST OVERRUNNING, WHILE NO RAIN IS EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND A MID-UPPER TROUGH
OVER NW MEXICO. HIGHS HOVER NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES (AROUND
20% OR LESS) THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART, WE SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOWS WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT
UNFORTUNATELY (OR FORTUNATELY FOR SOME) THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT
BRING A NOTABLY COLDER AIRMASS IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. IN FACT,
MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AS THESE
TROUGHS TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS, ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THE LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING, BUT SHOULDN'T RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER
LOW TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERIES OF
TROUGHS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURES COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE GULF WATERS, WHICH
COINCIDES WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, SPOTTY SHOWERS AND BRIEF CEILING HEIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS ARE LEADING TO VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING DUE TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE ADDED A PROB30
THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS ALL AERODROMES HAVE BEEN
REPORTING VFR CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF: IFR (FOR
CEILINGS OF 700-900 FT) AT KHRL AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KBRO. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMFE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS MAY PICK UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
SURFACE AND RISES CEILINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT,
BUT HAVE KEPT OVC IN THE TAF'S AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT FRESHENING THE NORTHERLY WINDS. SEAS RESPOND BUILDING
SLIGHTLY WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE GULF WATERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THIS EVENING. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER EASTERLY WHILE AND SEAS LOWER BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY FAIR
MARINE WEATHER RETURN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 56 72 61 / 30 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 52 72 56 / 30 0 0 0
MCALLEN 72 55 73 59 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 53 71 57 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 65 70 66 / 30 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 57 71 61 / 30 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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