520
FXUS64 KBRO 202346 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO BROADENS.
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, SATELLITE AND RADAR
HAVE DISPLAYED CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING PROGRESSING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FASHION
INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED
AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE, AS RECORDED BY AIRPORT
OBSERVATIONS, INDICATING THAT DRYER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO
THE CWA. THESE CHANGES IN CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO A REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM THE EAST COAST AND
DEEPENS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVERCAST SKIES,
BROKEN AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LOWER LEVEL (925-850
MB) SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RIDE OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS NEAR
THE SURFACE, LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS WHILE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AT SPI. TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND 60S ACROSS THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR CURRENTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS,
BUT BECOME A LOW RISK TOMORROW AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A SERIES OF 500MB TROUGHS SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND LEAD US
INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND OF 2024 WITH A LACK OF CLATTER OR SNOW,
BUT PLENTY OF RED-NOSED THERMOMETERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY MEANDERS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY, CLEARING ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR COASTAL SPRINKLES. THE
NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A BRIEF
CHANCE OF RAIN AND PATCHY MORNING FOG. NOTE...FOR SPECIAL SC
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...MOST OF ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW,
WITH LITTLE TO NO NEED FOR RUDOLPH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME LINGERING VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THIS
EVENING, WITH SKIES BECOMING FEW TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) BUOY 42020 INDICATE A 15 KNOT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WHILE DATA FROM STATIONS ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE
INDICATE 10-15 NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WINDS FROM A
PASSING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (3-4 FT)
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS (0-60 NM) AND NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT (2-3 FT) SEAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BECOME EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY RULE THE LONG TERM, WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGING BRIEFLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS. PATCHY MARINE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD, WITH WARMER
AIR FLOWING ABOVE SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
REMAINS OFFSHORE, MAINLY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 57 73 61 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 52 73 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 56 75 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 73 57 73 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 71 66 73 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 73 61 74 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page