412
FXUS64 KBRO 150404
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1004 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND BELOW IN THE MARINE UPDATE SECTION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING ALL DAY AND LOOKS TO PEAK OVENIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A 500MB TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND OUT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARM AIR ADVECTION (E-S WIND, 925-750MB)
PEAKS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND. SOME ADDED LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE WAA STRENGTHENS MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS PROVIDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS
OF ONE-QUARTER INCH, BUT MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT FOG) WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN. RAIN CHANCES
BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN TAPER
OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW ALSO SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
SUN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONCE THE OVERRUNNING WEAKENS (IF IT DOES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AND THE COAST.)
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWERED HIGHS EARLIER TODAY DUE TO THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECT. THE ONSET OF THE RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL NEAR DEW POINTS WHICH
RANGED FROM 50-54 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EXPECT
ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS WITH A NARROW TEMPERATURE RANGE MORE IN LINE
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND THAN THE WARM NBM. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY 50-57 WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN PEAKS THROUGH THE SLOW ERODING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
-POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 70S LOW 80S RETURNING
FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE RGV. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH
UPPERS 30S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE RANCHLANDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH TUESDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT PROBABILITIES SHOW SHOW 70-80% CHANCES OF
TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES OR BELOW IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH
PROBABILITIES OF OF 25-40% IN THE RGV. AT THIS TIME FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE PROBABLE FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS TO 20S.
ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES, LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH POTENTIAL LOWS NEAR OR
AROUND FREEZING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION (FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET) IS UNDER 20% WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TRACE EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS IN REGARDS TO
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF AT LEAST FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WE WILL BE
KEEPING A VERY CLOSE ON ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A LOW PRESSURE COASTAL TROUGH SITTING OFFSHORE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS CURRENTLY VARYING BETWEEN 400-500 FT ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MIST, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 2-4 SM AT
TIMES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MOSTLY LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
LOWER TO AROUND 200 FT, CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDUCE TO AROUND 1-2
SM AND MAY REDUCE TO LESS THAN 1SM AT KBRO AND KHRL AROUND SUNRISE.
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE,
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RESUME WITH CHANCES OF
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS DECREASING AND WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP OUT THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, PERHAPS BY 18-20Z, AS THE TROUGH
STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
UPDATE...BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WIND DATA FROM THE 03Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS, DECIDED TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS USING A BLEND
OF THE NAM WITH NBM AND OFFICIAL IN ORDER TO MATCH THE FRESH TO
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN
BAY, GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND REMAINS
IN EFFECT TILL 00Z THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS OF THE SCA ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL BE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY
ACCORDINGLY AS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD COULD BECOME SCA, POSSIBLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE POSTED LATER TONIGHT AND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY, IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMING
FAVORABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST, NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH SCA
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 54 57 50 63 / 60 70 20 10
HARLINGEN 49 55 46 64 / 70 70 10 10
MCALLEN 50 53 48 67 / 70 70 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 48 53 48 66 / 60 60 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 60 56 63 / 70 70 30 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 58 49 63 / 70 70 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ135-155-175.
SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...65
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