205
FXUS64 KBRO 152130
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
500MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NE TEXAS TONIGHT DRAGGING THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH WITH IT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS TAPERED OFF AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION WANES WITH 230 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OVER CAMERON COUNTY AND OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN STEADY WITH LIMITED SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING DUE TO STUBBORN CLOUD COVER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST TO NEAR 50 FOR
THE RGV. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
SUN EMERGES FROM THE OVERCAST WITH MOST GUIDANCE ON BOARD FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. ANOTHER COOL MORNING
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-LOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTER MIX NEXT TUESDAY
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP TYPE NEXT WEEK
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND ADVECTS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVING AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES LAG BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY. COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING CAA TO CONTINUE TO DROP TEMPERATURES. AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP MONDAY AS 850MB FLOW SHIFTS
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS QUITE
HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF 10+ DEGREES BETWEEN MODELS, AS
WELL AS LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN RUNS. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN COULD WORK TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES, AS IT LIMITS DAYTIME WARMING, AND OVERNIGHT COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY, MANY MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED WARMER WITH THE LATEST RUN.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, PORTIONS OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG
COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MONDAY
MORNING. FREEZE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS
TUESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTER MIX OVER PORTIONS OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG
COUNTIES. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES, WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
IFR CLOUD DECKS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WITH A SLOW RISE TO LOWER END MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE PUSHING OFFSHORE KEEPING VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST WITH KMFE TO SEE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FIRST
AND WITH THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST (KHRL, KBRO) SEEING
CEILINGS RISE LATER TONIGHT. VFR RETURNS THURSDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE UNDERACHIEVING AS OF 2 PM.
BUOYS AND PLATFORMS ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE ARE ALL INDICATING WINDS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 KNOTS) SO WILL DROP THE SCA
AND REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, BUOY
42020 IS OBSERVING NORTH WINDS AT 23KTS GUSTS 27KTS AND SEAS AT 9
FEET. THESE HIGHER CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO LOWER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SCA OVER THE GULF WATERS BEING MAINTAINED.
THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PRODUCING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES WELL EAST THURSDAY WITH
MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 50 65 52 75 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 46 66 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 50 68 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 67 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 64 58 71 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 63 51 75 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59
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