275
FXUS64 KBRO 162127
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
327 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
FALL TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AN ARCTIC SURGE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR RGV FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND ANY
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW MINOR CHANGES ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE SHOWING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN WITH NO LINGERING ENERGY DIGGING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE AMPLIFIED COLD TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT PLAY MUCH FACTOR
IN THE OVERALL COLD SNAP, IT DOES INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND FOR HOW LONG AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS DO OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
WITHIN DAY-TO-DAY DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE LAST
SPREAD AMONG THE WARM GFS AND COOLER ECMWF NOW 10-20 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS AND 10-15 DEGREES FOR LOWS ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH THIS SAID THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO
BE FOLLOWED WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
LAST WARM DAY IS SATURDAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR
POISED TO SURGE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS SHOWN FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE (1048MB) BUILDING SOUTH
BRINGING THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC REGIME(OVERRUNNING). RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE
BEGIN LATER MONDAY PEAK TUESDAY AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE RENEWAL OF OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING PROBABILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN OUT. WIND CHILLS TO HOVER AT
"COLD WEATHER ADVISORY" (20-30 DEGREE) EACH NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME TUESDAY POSSIBLY SEEING "FEEL LIKE"
TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS.
AS FOR FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION THE CURRENT FORECAST, PLACES
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES IN
LOW PROBABILITY (20-30%) MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SOME LIGHT ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD
BRIEFLY RESULT IN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF WATERS,
POSSIBLY REQUIRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW AND BUILD SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE. ROUGH
CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE MAY BE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ARE INCREASING FOR THIS
PERIOD. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND NOT IMPROVING
UNTIL LATER THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 52 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 49 77 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 51 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 71 63 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 75 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...60-BE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page