904
FXUS64 KBRO 160509 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1109 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
CURRENTLY A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AS FOR TONIGHT, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO SUNRISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN, BUT NOT
EXPECTING TO NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT TIME. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PARTS OF THE LOWER VALLEY COULD BE INTO THE
LOW 60S.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS
WELL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN THE LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
FINALLY, ALONG THE COAT, ELEVATED SEAS WILL PRODUCE A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS OCCURRING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
* VERY WARM (ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES) WEATHER WILL COOL TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS AFTER A LATE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT.
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT ADJUSTMENT. MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL TAKE A
SWIPE ACROSS THE KENEDY COUNTY RANCHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL BREAK INTO THE 90S WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA ORIGINALLY
POSTED BY SPC FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV ON WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN
PULLED NORTH OF THE CWA, BUT A FEW RUMBLES NEAR THE COAST MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN COLD AIR SURGE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED, A FEW RUMBLES AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WITH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S, AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A RECOVERY PERIOD WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AND POST FRONTAL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EVENTUALLY
RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DUE SATURDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN
AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH
IT LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT. THE MAIN AIR MASS APPEARS
TO GET SHIFTED EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MODEST OVERRUNNING NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND A STABILIZATION OF TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WITH THE SECOND TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS NOTED AT KBRO TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL 3 REGIONAL AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY, DIMINISHING AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 16/22Z-17/00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....A MIXTURE OF ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING TOMORROW
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AT NOON DUE TO THE ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ADVERSE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LIKELY NEEDING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL DECREASE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
SWINGING BACK AROUND TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
AND COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 60 68 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 55 68 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 56 73 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 52 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 58 66 57 71 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 58 67 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...59-GB
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