909
FXUS64 KBRO 161117 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
517 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BRISK NORTH WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A MORNING COLD
FRONT
THE ROLLER COASTER OR BATTLE OF THE SEASONS TEMPERATURE SWINGS
CONTINUES TODAY WITH A MODERATELY STRONG DRY COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. 500MB TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST
OF TEXAS WITH A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
TODAY TUMBLE 15 TO 25 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS THAT WERE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH RELATES TO HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH FULL SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S SOUTH WINDS WITH 850-925MPH LAYER
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS, PROVIDING BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW WIND ADVISORY. 1000-500MB
LAYERED RH ON THE OTHER HAND WILL BE MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 25-45 PERCENT RANGE WHICH
MAY POSE A SLIGHT FIRE HAZARD BEFORE THE GUSTY WINDS TAPER OFF.
LOCAL FIRE HAZARD CHECK SHOWS JUST A SMALL PORTION OF WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY POSE A BRIEF FIRE RISK, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. NONE THE LESS, SOME RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT MAY
BE STARTED, IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY BEACH-GOERS, SURF CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ROUGH AS NORTH
WINDS INCREASE. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL
BEACHES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. BEACH CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FOR MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DIMINISHING WINDS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PRIME
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP STEADILY WITH
UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCHLANDS AND THE 40S FOR
THE RGV. THE ROLLER COASTER MID FEBRUARY SWING TRENDS ON THE UPHILL
SIDE MONDAY AS WINDS VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A WARMING TREND
COMMENCING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND CLOUDS
TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION, THOUGH A FEW PLACES MAY BREAK INTO THE LOW 90S. AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IT WILL
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL SEE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20%) WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 0Z RUNS KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST NBM DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS ALSO TRENDED WARMER, WITH ONLY
THE MOST NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA REACHING FREEZING. THE NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF TO AROUND 30-50%
PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DOWN FROM AROUND 70-80% YESTERDAY. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS, CONFIDENCE IN THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW. AS SUCH, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
NUDGE THE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT REMAIN
ON THE COOLER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, A WEAK OVERRUNNING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, AND
COULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST FRIDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP UNTIL AT
LEAST 23Z ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY IN PLACE
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
UP UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS EAST MONDAY WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, LIKELY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE, THOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO TIGHTEN AGAIN FRIDAY
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS COULD
REQUIRE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 49 74 65 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 72 47 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 41 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 55 70 65 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 51 73 62 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59-GB
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