885
FXUS64 KBRO 162028
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
228 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. SHOULD THE CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT SOONER THAT WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED THEN THE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER.
HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, THEN
THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. BASED ON THE
MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOWING THE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE WINDS OFF THE COAST TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
BASED ON THIS SCENARIO, THE COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. MEANWHILE, THE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES, UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY FOR THE
LOWER VALLEY.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE WINDS OVER LAND WILL VEER
TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST STARTING THE WARMING TREND
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WHILE THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE DAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT NIGHT AS WELL, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL BEACHES
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE HEIGHTS COME DOWN, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR MONDAY TO LOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
* A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE HAS DECREASED TO LOW (10%).
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT ADJUSTMENT. THIS RUN, WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS, LOOKS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY, WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES CHECKING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
MORNING (AFTER THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL). USED THE DYNAMIC
ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS FOR IDSS (DESI), TO DETERMINE THAT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE (10%) OF FREEZING TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
RGV THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (25%), THOUGH,
THAT THE BRUSH COUNTRY COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR BELOW FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WON'T BE COLD OTHER
MORNINGS. UPPER 30S TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES AND
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. SUMMERTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TUESDAY
WILL GET PULLED DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY, SETTLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NOT UNTIL NEXT
SUNDAY WILL HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE COOL DOWN
WILL BE A SWING OF AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY AND
GOING FORWARD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, WE EXPECT WARMING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IT WILL
SUPPORT AN UNDERLYING COLD FRONT TO MARCH SOUTH INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ARRIVING
AT THE COAST/BROWNSVILLE AROUND DAWN. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL SEE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 10%) WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A COASTAL TROUGH
AND WEAK OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPSTREAM RIDGING AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FILL AND A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO END THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF ADVERSE TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF
WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST TONIGHT, THE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
KEY MESSAGE:
* MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TURN HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THEN, STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL TAKE
OVER. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40 TO 60%) THAT WE COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CONTINUING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, MEANING THAT WE CAN PROBABLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE GULF FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 51 73 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 47 75 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 48 77 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 42 75 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 69 64 74 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 52 72 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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