346
FXUS64 KBRO 171707
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1107 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY
AS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS
THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY, MOISTURE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT AREA BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SURGE OF POLAR AIR WORKING ITS
WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL. MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS IF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA) WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO
TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS MAY
BE TOO WARM IN THE SCHEME OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. DETAILS STILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE APPROACH THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE FOR THE RANCHLANDS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY AND POSSIBLE EXTREME COLD ADVISORY (WIND CHILL) FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA. LOOKING AT THE DESI PROBABILITY, FREEZING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE (NOW 10% FOR 32F OR BELOW)AND THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LEADS INTO THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE, THE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
SURFACE TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A RAPID DEEPENING OF MOISTURE TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS.
DEVELOPING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD SURFACE AIR WILL
PROVIDE A LIKELY OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE
WPC QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF A QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL BE A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME, HIGHS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED 2-4
DEGREES ACROSS THE RGV WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
LIKELY TO WARM IN THIS PATTERN. AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD,
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT ARE ANTICIPATED AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS "RODEO"
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NBM AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, EXPECT A MUCH COLDER LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR GETS "TRAPPED" OVER THE REGION UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHEN WARMER SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT
KBRO AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT KHRL AND KMFE AS GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KHRL AND
KMFE, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE AND
CONSISTENCY OF THIS SIGNAL ARE LOW. A BREEZY DAY MAY BE IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS AND
ENHANCES SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS
RISING BACK TO VFR BY MID DAY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, OR
HIGHER, COULD BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
TUESDAY, AS WEAK FORCING MOVES OVER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POLAR FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIODS OF ADVERSE TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS LARGE COLD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL BE SLOW TO TRACK EASTWARD.
THE INITIAL SURGE MAY USHER IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STEADY STRONG TO MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THEREAFTER. SEAS RESPOND QUICKLY BUILDING OVER 10
FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 64 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 61 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 78 63 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 59 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 65 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 62 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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