428
FXUS64 KBRO 172041
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
241 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE WEST COAST DIGS
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD, PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MOVING OVER
EASTERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE, SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL (925/850 MB) FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA), VIA A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN US FROM A
1045-1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND BEACHES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES. HAVE INCREASED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY USING A 50/50 BLEND OF FORECAST
AND HRRR AS WESTERLY 700 MB WINDS COULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING OFF OF
THE SIERRA MADRE AS WELL AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, RESULTING IN
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RGV EAST OF I-69 C AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR AREAS WEST OF I-69C
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 AT THE BEACHES. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
AS WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. AS THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE WILL AID IN
SENDING THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS REACHING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S, POSSIBLY LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS,
ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
* A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING OR WINTRY PRECIP IS VERY LOW (10%) AND MAINLY APPLICABLE
TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. THIS RUN, WITH
RESPECT TO THE ARCTIC AIR MASS, SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE RUN 24 HOURS
AGO, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES CHECKING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY MORNING (AFTER THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL). WE WILL
REALIZE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS AT MIDNIGHT, SINCE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
WILL NOT RECOVER TO THE MIDNIGHT VALUES DURING THE DAY. USED THE
DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS FOR IDSS (DESI), TO DETERMINE THAT
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
RGV THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (10%), THOUGH,
THAT THE BRUSH COUNTRY COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR OR JUST BELOW FOR A
FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WON'T BE COLD OTHER
MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL OCCUR ON
OTHER MORNINGS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES
AND SPREADS OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY WILL HIGH TEMPS
RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE A SWING OF AROUND
30 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY AND GOING FORWARD TO THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IT WILL
SUPPORT AN UNDERLYING COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTH INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ARRIVING AT
THE COAST/BROWNSVILLE AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL SEE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 10%) WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A COASTAL TROUGH AND
WEAK OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPSTREAM RIDGING AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE
COASTAL TROUGH TO FILL AND A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TO FINISH OUT THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT
KBRO AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT KHRL AND KMFE AS GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KHRL AND
KMFE, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE AND
CONSISTENCY OF THIS SIGNAL ARE LOW. A BREEZY DAY MAY BE IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS AND
ENHANCES SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS
RISING BACK TO VFR BY MID DAY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, OR
HIGHER, COULD BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (3-4 FT) SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AS A HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STEADY
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. IN THE LATE HOURS OF
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A STRONG SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RUSH SOUTHWARD, BRINGING A SHARP
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FRESH TO STRONG, POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE, SUSTAINED WINDS AND GALE FORCE GUSTS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH, ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-30%) CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
KEY MESSAGE:
* MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TURN HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND DAWN. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL TAKE OVER.
THERE IS BRIEF MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30 TO 40%) THAT WE COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH THIS CYCLE PENDING BETTER CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
CONTINUING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SEAS ON THE
GULF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, MEANING THAT WE CAN PROBABLY EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE GULF FROM WEDNESDAY
(ASSUMING NO GALES) THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM MARINE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY, BUT GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 64 84 52 65 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 61 84 47 61 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 64 88 49 62 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 86 47 60 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 72 52 61 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 79 49 63 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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