005
FXUS64 KBRO 181128 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
528 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA AND THE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS,
REACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE AMPLE CAPE (200-1000J/KG) WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, CIN VALUES RANGING FROM 50-200
J/KG WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. NBM POPS
WERE COMING IN BELOW 10% THIS RUN, HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC HIRES AND
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIRES MODELS, RAP AND HRRR
WERE MIXED IN TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPPER OFF BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS, AND A BRIEF WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS. WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD HIGH SEAS WEDNESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
- FREEZE WATCH THURSDAY MORNING NORTHERN WESTERN RANCHLANDS
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A STARK TEMPERATURE SWING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH POLAR AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. WILL START OFF WITH A FREEZE WATCH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN RANCHLANDS COUNTIES WITH DESI PROBABILITY
SHOWING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%)OF 3-6 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES
32F OR BELOW. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO THE LOWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREAS (CWA) POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD JUST BE COLD AND RAW
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WITH MAXIMUM COVERAGE FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH, PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENING (SE-SW 925-850MB WINDS 20-30KTS)
PUSHING THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR SATURATION. OUTSIDE OF SOME STEADY
RAINFALL FRIDAY, DRIZZLE AND A COLD NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN
A NARROW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAINING
IN THE 40S AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 AT THE COAST AND THE RGV.
ANOTHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERING AND NOT LIFTING NORTHEAST UNTIL LATE SATURDAY ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. ONCE THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST,
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS PROVIDING A STEADY WARMING
TREND. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY, 70S TO
NEAR 80 MONDAY AND 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
SLOWER TO INCREASE BUT A WARMING TREND NONE THE LESS 40S AND 50S
FOR MOST MORNING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
RETURNING TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT, WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT’S WAKE.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE, THOUGH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA TO PROVIDE ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AND SOME PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 49 60 41 / 10 50 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 44 56 38 / 10 50 10 0
MCALLEN 87 47 59 38 / 0 40 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 44 56 36 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 51 59 46 / 10 50 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 47 59 43 / 10 30 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ248>251.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....59
AVIATION...60-BE
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