351
FXUS64 KBRO 182351 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
551 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
*KEY MESSAGES:
-STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO CHILLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
-A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS FROM THE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
-A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
"REAL FEEL" TEMPERATURES COULD REACH AS LOW AS 21-30 F.
-A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3-9 AM THURSDAY MORNING AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL
SET TO DROP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE POOLING AND
LIFTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-30%) CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS, MOSTLY EAST OF I69-C, POSSIBLY
BEGINNING JUST BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES
BEHIND THE SHOWERS IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, LEADING TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND AS WELL AS WINDY
CONDITIONS AT THE BARRIER ISLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
FOR SPI AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40 MPH, OR
MORE, ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT'S OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA, THOUGH UPPER 30S MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN A FEW
SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WILL BE A CHILLY ONE AS APPARENT, OR "REAL FEEL," TEMPERATURES
COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE RGV AND
LOW 30S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS FOR A FEW HOURS.
TOMORROW, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE VIA NORTHERLY WINDS;
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAXIMIZE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S,
WHICH COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS MUCH OF
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST EAST OF I69-C, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS. PARTIAL
CLEARING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING
CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV ASIDE FOR POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS 29 F IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED AT THE
BEACHES. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3-9 AM THURSDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, INCLUDING ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND
INLAND KENEDY COUNTIES. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE AND APPARENT TEMPERATURE, THE "REAL FEEL" TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE RGV AS WELL AS LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY (INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE) AND SPI. THUS, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
* A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING OR WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 30%) AND
MAINLY APPLICABLE TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY FROM ZAPATA EAST TO INLAND
KENEDY COUNTIES.
* TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND BEYOND, TRENDING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY.
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING (AFTER THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL).
A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (THROUGH 9
AM) FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS FROM ZAPATA EAST TO INLAND KENEDY
COUNTIES. THROUGH SATURDAY, COLDER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE, WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON TOP
OF THAT, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR OVERRUNNING
PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION WILL
NOT BE LARGE, HOWEVER, AS THE PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY, THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO FILL, DESPITE A SMALL AMOUNT OF NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH. THE REASON WILL BE BECAUSE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE HEADED OVER FROM WEST TEXAS. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
COULD LINGER ON SUNDAY, AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FORESTALLED IN THE
70S AND 80S, SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN BEFORE AND A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FOR ALL AIRPORTS AND TO IFR FOR BRO AND
HRL. MVFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED BY 03Z AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY 05-07Z. MFE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 05Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30
KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BETWEEN 07-09Z AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY GUSTY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A GENTLE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH (30-60%) CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEAR-
GALE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS (25-30 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER).
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 AM FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE AND GULF WATERS FROM 0-60 NM AND CONTINUES TILL 6 AM
THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS BUILD VERY ROUGH SEAS (AS HIGH AS 13-15
FEET, OR MORE). THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TILL AT LEAST 6 AM
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO MODERATE.
KEY MESSAGE:
* MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PROMPTING ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE LAGUNA WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, WITH SCEC
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 46 58 39 51 / 30 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 43 55 34 50 / 20 10 0 0
MCALLEN 46 57 36 48 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 43 54 35 48 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 50 57 45 54 / 40 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 45 56 39 54 / 30 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ248>251.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...55-MM
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