306
FXUS64 KBRO 191005
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN WAKE OF
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
- ADVERSE BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES
AND GULF WATERS.
AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, USHERING IN A NOTABLY
COLDER AIRMASS. THE "HIGH" TEMPERATURE OF THE DAY FOR MOST OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE OCCURRED PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL INTO THE 40S TODAY. OPTED TO BLEND
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY'S TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE NBM
10TH PERCENTILE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER, SHOULD OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER AS WELL AND MAY NECESSITATE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25-35 MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL STILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH HEADING INTO
TONIGHT. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLDEST TIME FRAME WILL BE TONIGHT INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES. A
FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES. FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 39 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPOTS IN THE RURAL PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 32 DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
REGION WIDE AS WIND CHILL VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
WINDS. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH PERSISTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE AND CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S, AND "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MESSY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY IN ADVANCE OF A 500 MB TROUGH, WITH THE TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH THE BRO CWFA, DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES, PRECIPITATION, AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. A
GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
GREATLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW RE-DEVELOPING
AND PREVAILING.
FINALLY, WITH GREATLY ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY....THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS WILL BE CEILING AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCOMING ARCTIC
FRONT. AS OF THIS UPDATE, GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
REVEALED A SCT-BKN DECK OF VFR CLOUDS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES
OVER THE TAF SITES.
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER
THE REGION, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ELEVATION WITH CIGS
GETTING DOWN INTO MVFR AND MAYBE EVEN IFR LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO IN SPOTS. HAVE VCSH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
THERE COULD BE INSTANCES OF IFR CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL. LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND WE
COULD SEE FLYING CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO VFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARCTIC FRONT. BETWEEN 08Z-11Z, NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS OR SO. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 34 KNOTS, WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
ON THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY.
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 48 37 47 43 / 10 0 0 30
HARLINGEN 46 33 46 39 / 10 0 0 30
MCALLEN 49 36 48 41 / 10 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 48 33 48 38 / 10 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 48 39 49 48 / 20 10 10 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 45 37 45 43 / 10 0 0 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ248>251-351.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA-22
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...TOMASELLI-66
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