610
FXUS64 KBRO 201000
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS ARE NEARING FREEZING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
HAVE TRIMMED NBM GUIDANCE MUCH LOWER ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM, BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH. THE NAM, WHICH GENERALLY DOES VERY
WELL WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES, WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BELOW 40 DEGREES FROM NOW UNTIL SATURDAY, GENERALLY
BELOW 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS THROUGH THE SAME STRETCH. AS
OF NOW, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS OR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. IF TEMPERATURES DON’T BUDGE MUCH TODAY, FREEZE WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE MORE FOR THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND A STRONGER
PIVOT TOWARDS THE NAM WILL BE NEEDED. THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES
FROM THE COAST INLAND INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
COASTAL AND MARINE WILDLIFE INTERESTS MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR PELICANS
AND SEA TURTLES, ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AND THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
MESSY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ROUGHLY THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY IN ADVANCE OF A 500 MB
TROUGH, WITH THE TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE BRO
CWFA, DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES, PRECIPITATION, AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. A
GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
GREATLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW RE-DEVELOPING
AND PREVAILING.
FINALLY, WITH GREATLY ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A MODERATE RISK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....A BKN-OVC DECK OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL
BY AND LARGE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD,
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. RAIN/DRIZZLE
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06 TAF PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
LESS THAN 2 NAUTICAL MILES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SCEC
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE SCAS DO
NOT.
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 45 41 50 43 / 10 30 60 60
HARLINGEN 44 38 50 40 / 0 30 70 60
MCALLEN 46 39 49 41 / 0 30 70 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 37 44 38 / 0 20 50 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 51 46 55 48 / 20 50 80 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 47 41 54 44 / 10 40 70 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248>251-351.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...HALLMAN-56
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...TOMASELLI-66
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