668
FXUS64 KBRO 202058
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE COLD WEATHER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 30 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING FOR EVERYWHERE BESIDES THE COAST AND ON THE ISLAND. A FREEZE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT STARTING FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW FOR ZAPATA, JIM
HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN CURRENTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED, AS SUCH THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED FOR THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THIS HAS ALSO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY GOING THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (40% TO 60%) OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP THE AREA COOLER
AS WELL ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NORTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN
COLDER AIR.
AS FOR COASTAL HAZARDS, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS IN PLACE
THROUGH TOMORROW AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SURFACE COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY BRING "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES OF 33 OR LESS. LOW TO
MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING LEAVE A LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF FREEZING
RAIN IN ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ~850MB WILL FORCE
MOISTURE OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, CREATING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MID
TO UPPER-LAYER TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES SWEEPING OVER TEXAS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ERODE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
AND FORCE THE SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH EASTWARD.
SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THIS EJECTING TROUGH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAYTIME WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
MINIMAL. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS CLEARING, SO I
OPTED TO DECREASE THE SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS BLENDING NBM WITH NBM25.
BY MONDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ACT TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-NORMAL, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THE WORKWEEK.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT HAS ITS SIGHTS ON DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATING PASSAGE THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION AND A STEEP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR TAF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO MORE LOWER END MVFR TAFS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL TAF SITES. GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SEVERAL OF THE BUOYS IN THE
LAGUNA MADRE HAVE SHOWN THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
STRONGER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE SEAS WITH A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION,
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE (20-60
NM) WATERS. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 40% THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEFORE VEERING SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO FAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 35 43 38 49 / 60 60 50 40
HARLINGEN 35 42 37 48 / 50 60 50 50
MCALLEN 33 41 37 49 / 50 60 50 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 33 40 36 48 / 30 50 50 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 45 52 50 51 / 70 70 70 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 38 46 43 51 / 70 70 60 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ248>255-353.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ248>250.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
FRIDAY FOR TXZ248>250.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...64-KATZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page