411
FXUS64 KBRO 210858
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KBRO DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
MOVING OFF OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING GENERATED DUE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. AS THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY MORPHS INTO A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE BRO CWFA, ESPECIALLY TODAY. OVERALL, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING TODAY. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED MORE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69E CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ANTICIPATED, COURTESY OF OVERCAST SKIES, THE SUSTAINED CHANCE OF
RAIN, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUSTAINED AND REINFORCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE, THE INHERITED FREEZE WARNING,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ALL IN EFFECT
THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, HAVE BEEN RETAINED WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL ENSURE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, CLEARING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEW WEEK AND BRINGING BACK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR BREEZY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO COME BACK
AROUND WITHOUT THE BLANKET OF ANY CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. NEAR NORMAL LOWS RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
NEXT FRONT ARRIVES GENERALLY DRY ON THURSDAY FROM THE PACIFIC NW
WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY BREEZE.
MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY, WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP, FREEZE CURED FUELS,
AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND
STARR COUNTIES ESPECIALLY. AT THE MOMENT, 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ONLY
BRIEFLY PICK UP WITH THE FRONT, BUT DROP OFF SOON AFTER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY....THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS/CHALLENGE TO
AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS. AS OF THIS UPDATE, MVFR CONDITIONS WERE TAKING
PLACE AT THE TERMINALS WITH CIGS RANGING BETWEEN 1,200-2,300 FEET
AGL. LATEST SATELLITE AND FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN A BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK WITH
CEILINGS HOLDING MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE INSTANCES
WHERE CIGS ARE IN IFR TERRITORY DURING THE 06Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE,
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. OVERALL, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST HI-RES CAM GUIDANCES. THAT
SAID, HAVE VCSH AND PROB30 HEADLINES IN THE TAFS TO ACKNOWLEDGE THIS
POTENTIAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 7 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
DUE TO THE FORMATION OF THE LOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS
AWAY FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING MARINE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF BY MONDAY. GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 48 39 49 44 / 70 50 40 30
HARLINGEN 47 38 48 42 / 80 60 50 30
MCALLEN 45 38 49 44 / 70 50 30 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 43 36 48 41 / 50 50 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 50 52 47 / 80 70 50 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 52 44 51 43 / 80 60 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-
353.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248>250.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ248>250.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...66-TOMASELLI
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