307
FXUS64 KBRO 212037
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL, THERE
IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT TO WHERE THEY
WILL BE ABOVE THE LOW 30S FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BRINING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW (30% OR LESS) FOR THE REGION. WHILE THE RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN, THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST AS THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE REGION.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, TONIGHT THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOWER
40S IN THE LOWER VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
FINALLY, THE CURRENT ACTIVE HAZARDS INCLUDE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT IS CURRENT IN PLACE UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THAT TO EXPIRE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
- A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP NEXT WEEK. WHILE SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S AND 80S BEGINNING ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MID
TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND NOT
AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. 20 FT WINDS ONLY PICK UP
BRIEFLY BUT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING, CURED FUELS, AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED.
MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....A MIXTURE OF ADVERSE AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE GULF
WATERS AS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIMES AS WINDS COULD BECOME ELEVATED.
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST,
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO
BORDERLINE CAUTION CONDITONS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 40 46 44 63 / 50 40 20 10
HARLINGEN 38 46 42 61 / 50 50 20 10
MCALLEN 38 47 45 65 / 50 40 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 36 46 42 68 / 50 30 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 50 52 47 59 / 60 50 30 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 44 48 43 61 / 60 50 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-
353.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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